Let’s get it out of the way now:
Tony was absolutely killed in the show’s final scene.Consider the following:
1.) The man in the Members Only jacket at Holsten’s. Throughout the show’s entire canon Members Only jackets represent a hit man. The episode ‘Members Only’ where a DiMeo family hit man wears a Members Only jacket the entire time. The guys who shoot Sil and Bobby are wearing Members Only jackets. The hitters who killed the guy vying for control of New York during their civil war are wearing Members Only jackets.
2.) Everything going black. In the episode ‘Soprano Home Movies’ it is established that when you die, you ‘never see it coming’ and everything goes black.
3.) Everything going silent. It is also established that when a murder goes down, everything goes goes quiet. Refer to the scene where the New York guy is killed at the restaurant while Sil is eating with him and everything goes silent when the shooting starts.
4.) The Members Only jacket guy goes to the bathroom towards the end of the scene. This is an obvious nod to The Godfather when Michael goes to the bathroom to get the gun.
5.) * Bonus * When you walk out of the men’s room at Holsten’s, You are lined up perfectly with the booth that Tony is sitting in giving you a point blank straight shot.
But who ordered the hit on Tony? The answer: Paulie.
Here are all the clues Paulie had Tony killed:
Season 1 -
Paulie makes it clear at the end of s1e13 he has a problem with Tony seeing a woman psychiatrist specifically. It is made very clear that it is a problem for Paulie and this issue is never resolved with Sil effectively pulling rank “look, he’s gonna be the new boss now… in name, in everything” to settle Paulie’s reservations.
Season 2 -
While the position of consigliere is always clearly signposted as Sil throughout the entire series, the equally important position of underboss is never clearly named except for two points on the show: s6e20 “Blue Comet” when New York declares war and they name Bobby Baccalieri as the underboss and primary target and s2e5 when Tony explicitly tells Paulie he is the underboss “it’s me then you and Sil together, that’s the new pecking order” (we can deduce if Sil is consigliere, Paulie must be underboss). We can also deduce that at some point between s2e5 and s6e20, Paulie is demoted because Bobby has supplanted him as underboss. This is most likely due to tensions Paulie personally stoked between Jersey and New York while he was in jail during season 4.
Season 3 -
“Pine Barrens” (s3e11) is a black mark on Paulie’s record by sheer virtue of the fact that he put the family in a very precarious position with the Russians. All while failing to complete a task that he does a hundred times a week, that is picking up money owed. This can be used in the case to depose Paulie from underboss.
Season 4 -
This is actually where things fall apart. Here’s what most Sopranos fans fail to recognize when they talk about Paulie’s fencewalking between Jersey — NYC: he never wanted to join New York because he was more loyal to them, he wanted to join New York because Jersey unappreciated him while he was in jail. Tony showed his hand in a really bad way during this period. Specifically, he showed the only two ways Tony would be loyal to you was if you were related to him (read: nepotism) or if you made him a lot of money (Ralphie and later Vito highlight this). Even with Paulie’s loyalties questioned (at a time when he was actively prospecting to switch teams for NYC), it came down to his drops being light. All it took was Paulie robbing an old woman and kicking up his score to Tony to restore confidence.
As for Paulie prospecting for NYC and the infamous cool guying Carmine did of Paulie. Here are the facts:
a.) Johnny Sack is the one who made the offer to Paulie to switch teams while suggesting Tony may be eliminated for being intragnizanlt (s4e11), “suffice to say, no matter what happens now, or in the future Carmine won’t forget you and as far as us talking like this It’s just because we’re old friends”. Read between the lines here: Johnny Sack is already laying down the groundwork for the war with Jersey (even when he was alive) and he’s trying to recruit Paulie (Jersey’s undisputed toughest enforcer) to his ranks (no doubt a nod to The Godfather where Luca ostensibly offered to join up with Sollazzo). Keep in mind at this point, Paulie is under the impression Johnny Sack and New York had Ralphie (a Jersey capo) killed so this approach from Johnny can only be seen as an overture of war against Jersey.
b.) People focus too much on Carmine’s cool guying of Paulie. It never mattered. Carmine was never going to be boss for much longer. Between his failing health and Johnny’s ambition to become boss (s4e13 when he orders a hit on Carmine), he was going to die sooner or later. Johnny Sack recruited Paulie. For the benefit of optics, Johnny had to say “Carmine wants to recruit you” because Carmine was still boss, he couldn’t speak as an assumptive boss without being accused of treachery.
Season 5–6
Tony’s leadership almost completely unravels over the next couple of years:
a.) Tony’s handling of the Tony Blundetto situation which brings Jersey — NYC to the brink of war. Tony killing Blundetto was way too little too late. Jersey never made this right with New York. Tony allowed a rogue member of his family to kill two made guys in New York. Killing him wasn’t penance, it was necessary.
b.) The rise of Bobby Baccalieri for no good reason other than marrying Janice. Bobby’s role as an earner is never celebrated, nor is his ability to make tough decisions. He was always Junior’s driver and later Janice’s husband. Lest we forget Tony ruled against Paulie in favor of Bobby in s6e9 over the malfunctioning carnival ride despite the fact that it is very, very clear Janice is faking being injured in order to shake down Paulie for money (which works).
c.) The handling of the Vito situation. Right or wrong, Vito had to go for leading a double life. Tony, blinded by greed, refused to surrender one of his top earners to New York (even though Phil was within his rights as Vito was married to Phil’s cousin and frankly, Tony delivering Vito to Phil would have been a gesture of good faith after he refused to rightfully deliver Blundetto to Phil). The ironic part is that when Ralphie was ostensibly killed by New York, Tony only seemed to shrug despite the fact that Ralphie was his top earner.
Season 6
Tony seems to be ready to kill Paulie in Florida for no other reason than Tony thinks Paulie is annoying. However, Tony tries to make it about the Ginny Sack joke incident as he correctly susses out Paulie as the, forgive the pun, mole in the Soprano family. However this makes little sense as everyone involved in the incident is dead (Johnny and Ralphie). Beyond that, here are the rest of the clues in season 6:
a.) Like the Carmine cool guying being a red herring, so too was Chris’ funeral. Chris and Paulie never liked each other. Full stop. If you don’t get along 98% of the time and then you say nice things 2% of the time, that’s not love, that’s a bad relationship. Chris and Paulie were at odds all the way up to Chris’ death. Even as Paulie seemingly said he loved Chris and wishes he had been better to him in life, he immediately curses Chris because of the poor attendance of his mother’s funeral. This slight by the Soprano family gives Paulie pretext to look back toward New York.
b.) when New York declares war on the Soprano family in s6e20, they do NOT name Paulie as a primary target. This is strange as Paulie is one of the family’s toughest enforcers. In The Godfather, the first person Barzini eliminated was Luca Brasi, the Corleone family’s toughest enforcer. This is a huge clue that New York had plans for Paulie in the aftermath of the war. Ask yourself “who runs Jersey after the war?” They need someone who commands loyalty from the Soprano family whilst remaining loyal to New York. The only person in Soprano management who fits that description is Paulie.
c.) in s6e21 “Made In America” (the series finale), Paulie watches Tony meet with FBI Agent Dwight Harris to discuss the whereabouts of Phil Leotardo. This can not be emphasized enough. The boss of a family is collaborating with the FBI against the boss of another family. This is Paulie’s golden ticket. If he takes this to The Commission in New York, they would immediately sanction a hit against Tony. There is no coming back from this for Tony.
d.) by the end of s6e21, it has been made clear Carlo, another capo, has become an informant for the FBI meaning Tony was about to be indicted. In the same week, Paulie now knows Tony has no problem working with the FBI while also knowing he is about to be facing hard time unless he cooperates. Considering the business Tony did with New York, the Commission can not allow Tony to survive with the knowledge he has. He needs to go and he needs to go fast before he enters protective custody.
e.) also at the end of s6e21, after the war is over, Tony tries to offer Paulie a “promotion” to capo of the Aprile crew. Never mind the fact that Paulie is already a capo. Never mind the fact that there are now job openings at consigliere and underboss. Never mind the fact that there are no qualified candidates for the jobs or the fact that Paulie has been there since the 60s or that he used to be underboss. Based on deduction and Tony’s patterns of nepotism, we can guess Patsy Parisi would be named underboss by virtue of his son’s engagement to Tony’s daughter Meadow. The fact that after everything Tony refused to promote Paulie was the last straw that gave him the gumption to eliminate Tony (much like a frustrated Johnny Sack was prepared to eliminate Carmine).
Now that we have established Paulie’s motives, here is how it went down:
Paulie cut a deal with New York where he would arrange the assassination of Tony and declare himself the new boss of the DiMeo family. New York would back it with their muscle and influence to make sure Paulie’s coup is seen as legitimate within the remaining Soprano family and the Five Families. In return, they would have a peaceful and harmonious relationship with New Jersey, something they had not had in years. This kind of relationship was especially necessary for Lupertazzi Family considering they had been in the middle of a two year civil war and was about to have their fourth boss in less than three years (Carmine, Johnny, Phil, and whoever would replace Phil). Beyond that, a boss turned state’s witness is an absolute nightmare scenario so Tony would need to be eliminated for the benefit of New York.
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